SEC Basketball Predictions: Kentucky/Alabama, Auburn/UGA, and more
The newsletter is back after a short hiatus due to holiday travel and other obligations for my national media workload.
Returning with it is the popular SEC basketball predictions that I’ve been doing for several seasons.
If this is your first venture into them, just know this: I do these for fun. If I was that confident in my picks, I’d move to Las Vegas.
Also, if I pick your team to lose, I don’t hate them. In fact, me picking your team to lose vastly increases their chances of winning. Just ask Alabama and Vanderbilt fans. They’ll tell you why they often ask me to pick them to lose.
Hopefully, in addition to the predictions, you’ll also get quality information on where teams stand.
Speaking of that: Moving forward, there is a possibility that these will only be sent to free email subscribers. That means they’ll only be shared via email and not on Twitter or through a direct link to this site.
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Let’s get to the picks.
Alabama at No. 14 Kentucky - Noon EST, ESPN
The Crimson Tide have scored 90 or more points in five straight games. Kentucky hasn’t given up 90 points in a game since allowing Zion Williamson and the Duke Dream Team to post 118 points in the season opener last season. Before that, you’d have to go back to the 103-100 thriller against North Carolina in 2016 to find an opponent that hit that mark.
In terms of offense, these teams do things differently. Alabama gets most of its scoring from the perimeter while Kentucky does its work inside the paint and at the free-throw line.
While the Tide’s loss at Florida was a missed opportunity, it still gives me more confidence in their potential to make this interesting. However, despite outrebounding a taller team in Mississippi State, depth and rebounding are a concern in this one due to the Wildcats’ ability to draw fouls.
Kentucky’s frontcourt trio of Nick Richards, EJ Montgomery, and Nate Sestina could prove to be the difference.
Prediction: Kentucky 84, Alabama 77
Georgia at No. 5 Auburn - Noon EST, ESPNews
This game was moved up from a scheduled 6 PM EST start due to the possibility of severe weather. At certain venues, that would potentially impact home-court advantage. That won’t be the case at Auburn Arena, which consistently has one of the rowdiest crowds in the country.
As for the matchup itself, it’s pretty fascinating. The Tigers had a close call against Vanderbilt, but for me, that game said more about the Commodores’ potential than anything else. Still, it likely gave Bruce Pearl an opportunity to regain his team’s focus. Meanwhile, Georgia is playing its best basketball of the season in winning at Memphis and coming up a little short against Kentucky.
Oh, and then there’s Anthony Edwards vs. Issac Okoro, which is a matchup worth the price of admission. They may guard each other, they may not. Either way, they’ve been two of the most impactful freshmen in the country this season. Enjoy them before they make their journey into the NBA.
I’ve been impressed with Georgia’s toughness, but I’m using the Ric Flair method with Auburn: To be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man. Until someone does, the Tigers get the nod.
Prediction: Auburn 81, Georgia 75
South Carolina at Tennessee - 1 PM EST, SEC Network
Frank Martin’s squad won back-to-back road games at Clemson and then-No. 9 Virginia before Christmas. Since then, they’ve lost back-to-back home games to Stetson and Florida. To take it a step further, South Carolina has lost three straight home games and won three straight road games.
Anarchy? Nope, just……well you know the rest.
So, the Gamecocks being on the road may actually be a good thing. The Vols got a nice win at Missouri earlier in the week (in a game where only six Tennessee players scored but all notched between 11 and 13 points), and that’s a positive boost of momentum after two double-digit losses to Wisconsin and LSU.
One stat worth watching: South Carolina is 10th nationally in getting 59.9 percent of its points from 2-point range, but Rick Barnes’ team ranks sixth nationally in holding opponents to 41.6 percent in that area.
I’m not sure where these two teams will finish in the SEC standings, but the Vols seem to be the more consistent of the two.
Prediction: Tennessee 75, South Carolina 70
Texas A&M at Vanderbilt - 3:30 PM EST, SEC Network
1/11 Update: Aaron Nesmith is reportedly out indefinitely with a foot injury, so obviously that changes the dynamic of this matchup and likely give the Aggies the advantage.
These two teams were projected to finish at the bottom of the SEC, and while they still could wind up there, they’re starting to figure some things out.
Texas A&M defeated Ole Miss on Tuesday, and as mentioned, Vanderbilt nearly pulled off an upset win at Auburn. Both Buzz Williams and Jerry Stackhouse are building their respective programs on toughness and player development, and that’s a recipe for long-term success.
We’ve also seen Vanderbilt forward Aaron Nesmith continue his tremendous season. He leads the nation in 3-point shooting at 52.2 percent and ranks fifth nationally in scoring with 23.0 points per game. Some other random stats: He’s scored 14 or more points every game this season, scored at least 11 points in 25 of his last 32 games, and made a 3-pointer in 36 straight games.
However, it’s worth noting that the Aggies have been effective at defending the 3-point shot this season in allowing opponents to shoot just 28.9 percent from beyond the arc.
But with Nesmith and fellow playmaker Saben Lee leading the charge, I have more confidence in the Commodores.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 72, Texas A&M 65
Arkansas at Ole Miss - 6 PM EST, SEC Network
Both teams are trying to get back on track after disappointing road losses. Of course, the Rebels’ had the more disappointing one by scoring just 47 points in a loss at Texas A&M. But perhaps Arkansas had the more deflating loss in losing by two at LSU in what would’ve been a good win for the NCAA Tournament resume.
The Razorbacks’ defensive numbers are still elite. They lead the nation in 3-point field goal percentage defense (22.6 percent), rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, and are 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That’s not great for the Rebels, who have had issues scoring in recent games. In the loss to the Aggies, Breein Tyree had 26 points while Devontae Shuler had 12. No other Ole Miss player had over three points.
If the Hogs can take advantage of that, they should have an opportunity to score a solid road victory.
Prediction: Arkansas 68, Ole Miss 63
Mississippi State at LSU - 8 PM EST, ESPN
This should be one of the better games on the schedule. Mississippi State hasn’t been able to put it together just yet in SEC play, but still has a ton of size and talent. LSU has won three straight, with one against previously undefeated Liberty and the other two against Tennessee and Arkansas.
The Tigers outrebounded Arkansas, the smallest team in the SEC height-wise, by 29 in Wednesday’s victory. Now, they’re set to play the biggest team in the SEC. But the size difference didn’t matter for Alabama in its win over the Bulldogs earlier in the week, as Nate Oats’ team won the rebounding battle en route to a 21-point win.
Both of these teams rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency, and that could make for an entertaining game.
LSU is riding a nice wave of momentum, so the Tigers are the pick.
Prediction: LSU 83, Mississippi State 74
Florida at Missouri - 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
Missouri center Jeremiah Tilmon won’t play in this game due to injury. That’s not ideal against a team that features SEC player of the year candidate Kerry Blackshear Jr., who has scored in double figures in all but two games this season.
And perhaps Florida’s early-season struggles are behind them. Mike White’s squad is averaging 95.6 points per game in its last three games, and a big reason why is because of Andrew Nembhard’s terrific play. He posted a double-double with 25 points and 10 assists in the double-overtime win against Alabama and then followed it up with 21 points in the win at South Carolina. He had 13 assists against Long Beach State.
As for the Tigers, they’ve scored just 59 points in back-to-back games, are playing well enough on defense (30th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) to give themselves a chance.
With Missouri’s continued struggles on offense, the Gators have a great shot at picking up another win.
Prediction: Florida 65, Missouri 57
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